This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to this new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools for this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a wonderful top trophy are always my favourite competitions to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will find a fantastic quantity of play in games. Here are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the most important event here as well, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He’s a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score tremendously and based on Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even have a top floor, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card as well. That is where I’ll be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP play of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is virtually a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that occurs we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down due to this and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a end to score 100+ points and that is why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we’re getting there, and I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to be among the most popular underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be by knockout so not only could he have the win, but he would score highly as well. I think if he does win this battle then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favorite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I think he loses, I’m actually picking him to win a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him since he is $9.3k and with his fighting style I do not see him becoming over 10x that wages. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. If he scores around this region again in this particular fight, then that pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP as the other men in that $9k stove probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every fight, my personal approaches & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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