This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card on account of this new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools with this occasion but there is still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful high prize are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a good amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best fight to enter money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the main event here as well, but I believe Kevin Lee is your must play of both. He’s a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he is going to score highly and based on Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even have a top floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup weekly.
GPP play of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we found a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is almost a PK battle on the gambling odds now. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down due to this and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes at the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he does win then he should score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is just +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we’re getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I do expect him to be among the most popular underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be so not just would he have the win, but he’d score highly as well. I think if he does win this battle he then ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favorite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him because he’s $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I don’t see him getting more than 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then that pretty much kills your chances in winning a GPP as the other guys because $9k range likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each fight, my private strategies & suggestions, and my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 47-28 for +169.81un (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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