This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee that will be the previous UFC on FOX card due to this new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools with this occasion but there is still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a wonderful top prize are always my favourite competitions to chase so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will find a fantastic amount of play in cash games. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the most important event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is your must drama of both. He is a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score highly and according to Vegas he has a 77% probability of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he have a top ground, but he likely has the highest ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup weekly.
GPP play of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is almost a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he does win then he must score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we’re getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to be among the most popular underdogs on the card, however it is chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s probably going to be by knockout so not just would he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I think if he does win this battle then he ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favorite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I am actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style that I do not see him getting more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his profession and he has scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. If he scores around this region again in this fight, then pretty much kills your chances at winning a GPP as the other guys because $9k range probably score higher and likely even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every struggle, my private strategies & suggestions, and also my pick outlook for every fight then you can discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the previous 7 months!)
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