This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which will be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools for this occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top trophy are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in games. Here are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to get into cash games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a whole lot of sense. I believe that you can pile the main event here too, but I believe Kevin Lee is your must play of both. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score highly and according to Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he have a high ground, but he likely has the highest ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP play of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we found a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK fight on the gambling odds now. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down because of that and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I love the value we’re getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this battle. I really do expect him to become one of the most well-known underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not only could he have the win, but he’d score highly as well. I think if he does win this battle then he ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favourite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I’m really picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him because he’s $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I do not see him getting over 10x that salary. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus much in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around this area again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP because the other men in that $9k range probably score higher and likely even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each fight, my private strategies & suggestions, and my pick prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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