This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The most important GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best you to pursue in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I will not have many LUs in complete this week. Other than that, almost all of my play this week will be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I believe that is a fight the UFC is needing him to win in his home country. I believe in championships, Yadong is going to be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with substantially smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you may create a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about possession. I believe that this is a good spot to lock in a triumph and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the job done in money games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Normally when there is value like that on an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of those men are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a fight which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If either of these guys get an early end they will probably be about the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter will be the reduced owned man of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will find a win. I believe that the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a clear route to victory and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends upon the 1st place lineup, especially if it’s an early KO. In the first battle between both of these guys Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty fast each time. If he’s able to end up like that again here, then I really don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the aerobic to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the toes and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a card, I don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best you to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting at least one of these women in the 9k selection. I think that they need to all get wins, but I don’t find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and I think she has to get a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA album and only 1 of those wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning than Mueller does this that is why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week but when I had been making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on zero of these.
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