When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a really clear advancement in how complicated wagers could be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of impact on Derby day. We’ve really moved far beyond simply picking a winner along with a second-place finisher and moved into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of success, in addition to bets like just how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I tend to find myself attempting to rationalize and think of quantifiable amounts to support my wager, who knows what’s going to occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down 300 before the actual race even begins?
Here are just three of my favorite proposition wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many spans would be winner win by? More than 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one span on 42 occasions. On the opposite end, the Derby was won by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a great deal of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to prefer the front end. With lots of vying for early positioning, a possible pace duel might appear upfront. If that is true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses which are sitting just off the rate, and gives a fair shot for a few of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most likely case scenario with this wager to money would be for faster fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish in the wire. In a field as competitive and carefully matched as this one, there’s a great deal of value in choosing the underdog option for the margin of length victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there have been numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be actually be factored into the likelihood of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify getting the bid last year.
With the Kentucky Derby area as wide open as it has been in years, and without a overpowering favorite — cash on an easy proposition wager this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Location Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board brings post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that in the telephone to the post.
Regardless of who plays or underperforms based in their likelihood, the probably last-place finisher is a runner that records that a DNF or has to pull up. This can often happen due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something that you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run smoothly, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate having an saddlecloth number. In +160, that seems like a lot of value to take a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”
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