When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there has been a very clear evolution in how intricate wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any type of impact on Derby day. We have really moved far beyond simply picking a winner along with a second-place finisher and proceeded into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, duration of victory, in addition to bets like just how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I often find myself attempting to rationalize and think of quantifiable numbers to support my wager, who knows what will occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the real race begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposition wagers for the Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths will be winner win ? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby was decided by less than 1 span on 42 events. On the opposite conclusion, the Derby has been obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
Within this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With a lot of vying for premature positioning, a possible pace duel might ensue upfront. If that’s true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a fair shot for a few of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.
The most probable case scenario for this wager to money is for faster fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish at the cord. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a great deal of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of duration victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds with this have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there have been numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, along with California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend seems to be really be factored into the likelihood of this wager, as well as the recency bias of Justify getting the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby area as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overpowering favorite — cash on a simple proposition wager this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Location Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This number seems to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board brings post 15. Although there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse 15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.
Regardless of who performs or underperforms based on their odds, the probably last-place finisher is a runner who records that a DNF or must pull up. This can often occur because of unforeseeable circumstances and is something that you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run smoothly, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking from a gate having an saddlecloth number. At +160, that seems like a lot of value to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sports!”
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