If it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there has been a very clear evolution in how complicated wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any type of impact on Derby day. We have moved far beyond just choosing a winner along with a second-place finisher and moved into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, duration of success, in addition to stakes like just how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I tend to find myself trying to rationalize and come up with quantifiable amounts to support my bet, who knows what will occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the real race even begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposition wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths would be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby was decided by less than one span on 42 events. On the opposite conclusion, the Derby was obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
Within this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to prefer the front end. With lots of vying for early positioning, a potential pace duel might appear upfront. If that is true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a reasonable shot for a few of the heavy closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.
The most likely case scenario for this bet to cash would be for quicker fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the cord. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there’s a lot of value in taking the underdog alternative for the margin of length success.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds with this have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there have been numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be really be factored into the likelihood of this bet, as well as the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and without a overwhelming favorite — cash on a simple proposition wager this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board brings post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that in the call to the post.
Despite who performs or underperforms based on their likelihood, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner that records a DNF or must pull up. This can often happen because of unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run easily, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking out of a gate having an even saddlecloth number. In +160, that appears to be a lot of worth to choose a 50/50 proposition bet.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”
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