If it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a very clear evolution in how complicated wagers could be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of outcome on Derby day. We have really moved far beyond just choosing a winner or a second-place finisher and proceeded into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of success, as well as bets like just how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I tend to find myself attempting to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my wager, who knows what’s going to occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the real race even begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposal wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths would be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby was decided by less than 1 span on 42 events. On the opposite end, the Derby was obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a great deal of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to prefer the front end. With a lot of vying for early positioning, a possible pace duel might ensue upfront. If that’s true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a fair shot for a few of the heavy closers to run down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most likely case scenario for this wager to cash is for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish in the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a lot of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of duration success.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this sure have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there have been many near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, along with California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency appears to be really be factored in to the odds of the bet, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and without a overwhelming favorite — cash on a simple proposition bet this weekend and bet the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Even though there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the call to the article.
Regardless of who performs or underperforms based in their likelihood, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner that records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often occur because of unforeseeable conditions and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run easily, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate having an saddlecloth number. At +160, that appears to be a great deal of value to take a 50/50 proposition bet.
Good luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”
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