John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run — Par 71 — 7,268 yards After another predictable birdie-fest in a new event and new place, that the PGA Tour heads to a familiar place for your John Deere Classic this week. Amidst all of the program changes on Tour this year, the John Deere kept it’s place the week before the British Open, with the usual spot because Open Championship available to the highest finisher here not already qualified.
Like the last two months, the TPC Deere run is a course that is generally lit up by birdies within the span of four times, and since so many young guns are blistering these birdie-fest monitors the past two weeks, we’ve got the odd phenomenon where men who are now in a variety of stages of their”rookie” seasons on Tour come into this event as the favorites.
Former Oklahoma State golfer Matthew Wolff announced his existence to the Tour with his triumph in Minnesota last weekend, also to get a PGA Tour win as well as the reigning NCAA Individual winner in the same season is quite an accomplishment. At +2500 this week, Wolff is one of the favorites, but it is his former collegiate teammate Viktor Hovland (+1800) who does hold that honor. Behind him, it’s another guy who had been playing collegiate golf — Collin Morikawa (+2000) — atop the odds list, together with younger guys like Sungjae Im (+2200), also Joaquin Niemann (+2200) in there as well. You would have to look at the old vet Zach Johnson (+2500) since the sole man over the age of 21 to be costly one of the favorites, as these young guys are only letting it rip and taking advantage of soft courses as well as softer areas.
Advertisement This field is among the weakest all year concerning recognized names given that many of those guys are already abroad preparing for the Open Championship, but only because those youthful names have established in spades the past two weeks, does not signify that TPC Deere Run might be best suited to those. Yes, it’s a very simple course that can observe guys go low in a hurry, but generally, past winners of the tournament have at least teed it up in TPC Deere Run in competition once before, and of all those youthful names I’ve already mentioned, only Niemann – 23rd in 2018 here — could boast that he has.
Expertise has shrunk to a degree here, as you would better have the ability to hit lots of greens in regulation and get hot with the putter to really have an opportunity, or be Zach Johnson who’s got one win, six Top 3 finishes, along with seven Top 5 finishes here the last 10 decades. But if Johnson is your”model” for your skill set you are searching for from men here, and inspiration stemming from maybe earning that final Open Championship spot, you will find different names in the field this week that you should keep a watch out for.
Listed below are 3 golfers that I’ve got my eye on for those reasons.
Golfers to Watch Daniel Berger (+3000) — Berger was once a young guy that held plenty of promise on Tour, but he has fallen off quite a bit over the last 8months as his title very occasionally pops up on a leaderboard. He’s really fought with his strategy, scrambling, and placing this year, which is not perfect to be backing at all, but in a field in this way, at a place where he’s got a 5th place finish on his resume in his only beginning (2017), maybe this is the week which Berger starts to find his game .
To do so, Berger better start hitting some GIR’s, as he ranks 162nd on Tour in that category this year, but there were signs of improvement recently with three Best 50 finishes in three of his past four outings. The best of this bunch was last week in the 3M Open using a T15, as a result of each of four rounds being from the 60’s, an dthe 23 birdies he left for the week might be a indication of things to come.
His best finishes at the 18-19 season have come at the occasions where you generally need to go low, and having not qualified for a spot overseas next week, the additional motivation to be involved in that Important for the third consecutive year needs to be playing in his head as well. Berger’s got the talent to put it together this week, and he is shown throughout his career on Tour that he’s no stranger to getting scorching hot to get a round or two to put himself right in contention. At 30-1 odds, I’m prepared to back that being the case this week.
Kevin Tway (+4000) — Tway would not fit the model mold of being a Zach Johnson type player, as he’s about as bomber because bomber gets on Tour, but outside of some tough putting numbers — something I’ve said again and again that are extremely fickle on a week-to-week foundation — Tway has improved his match in every other aspect this year.
Tway comes into the week ranked 44th on Tour in GIR % – (68.23) — that is readily Best 20 in this week’s field. His birdie average might be far better when he could find a hot putter for a few days, however TPC Deere Run does agree with him on the extent he did possess a 12th place finish here two years ago. His general length will come in handy here when he’s keeping the ball in play, and if he can utilize that span on the Par 5’s to go low there, it will just take a few decent scoring on the Par 4 — where he’ll have tons of short clubs in his hands — to find himself one of the leaders.
And like Berger, Tway is just another man who would like to make that trip overseas next week, as he’s never played in an Open Championship in his profession which is surprising since his father Bob played in the Open Championship 16 times throughout his days on the PGA Tour. With two Top 20’s in his past four starts, all it might require Tway to be among the leaders would be to locate his putting stroke over the weekend this week, and with expertise reading the greens at TPC Deere Run, he’s a good candidate to do so.
Johnson Wagner (+10000) — Further down the plank is where Johnson Wagner sits, as this man is another who is yet to shake his ticket abroad next week since he has been included in an Open Championship since 2013. But he’s coming from a T23 last week in Minnesota, and ranks third in the area behind Charles Howell and Talor Gooch at GIR percent at 70.57 percent. You provide yourself a birdie appearance of any span at TPC Deere Run 70% of time and eventually the birdies will start to drop, especially once you rank 23rd in Strokes Gained: Placing on Tour like Wagner does.
Shorter courses fit him better as he is not long at all off the tee (280.7 yards average), and he has only got to create sure he could assure himself that all those birdie appearances are within fair range instead then 30+ footers that normally lead to tap-in pars.
Thankfully, TPC Deere Run has always been kind to him in that recard, as his five starts here since 2014 have resulted in finishes of 16th, 5th (twice), 7th, and one missed cut. That is too great of a course history to discount at this price, with these GIR numbers this season, and when Wagner can just get his irons dialed in for the four days, this could wind up being a solid payday.
John Deere Classic Odds
Viktor Hovland 18/1
Collin Morikawa 20/1
Joaquin Niemann 25/1
Matthew Wolff 25/1
Sungjae Im 25/1
Zach Johnson 25/1
Brian Harman 28/1
Charles Howell III 28/1
Kevin Streelman 28/1
Lucas Glover 28/1
Daniel Berger 30/1
Ryan Moore 30/1
Kevin Tway 40/1
Wyndham Clark 40/1
Kyle Stanley 45/1
Sam Burns 50/1
Bud Cauley 55/1
Joel Dahmen 55/1
Ryan Palmer 55/1
Bronson Burgoon 66/1
Cameron Tringale 66/1
Jason Dufner 66/1
Mackenzie Hughes 66/1
Martin Laird 66/1
Nate Lashley 66/1
Scott Brown 66/1
Talor Gooch 66/1
Denny Mccarthy 75/1
J.T. Poston 75/1
Jhonattan Vegas 75/1
Peter Malnati 75/1
Beau Hossler 80/1
Brian Stuard 80/1
Cameron Champ 80/1
Danny Lee 80/1
Dylan Frittelli 80/1
Harold Varner III 80/1
Joey Garber 80/1
Nick Taylor 80/1
Nick Watney 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Sam Ryder 80/1
Sepp Straka 80/1
Troy Merritt 80/1
Vaughn Taylor 80/1
Austin Cook 100/1
Brice Garnett 100/1
Carlos Ortiz 100/1
Johnson Wagner 100/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100/1
Roger Sloan 100/1
Andres Romero 125/1
Andrew Landry 125/1
Doc Redman 125/1
Hank Lebioda 125/1
Jonathan Byrd 125/1
Kramer Hickok 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Matt Every 125/1
Matt Jones 125/1
Michael Thompson 125/1
Peter Uihlein 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Ryan Armour 125/1
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Adam Long 150/1
Alex Prugh 150/1
David Hearn 150/1
Josh Teater 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Roberto Diaz 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Seamus Power 150/1
Sebastian Munoz 150/1
Stephan Jaeger 150/1
Trey Mullinax 150/1
Tyler Duncan 150/1
Wes Roach 150/1
Zack Sucher 150/1
Adam Schenk 175/1
Bill Haas 175/1
Dominic Bozzelli 175/1
Roberto Castro 175/1
Sam Saunders 175/1
Ted Potter Jr. 175/1
Adam Svensson 200/1
Anirban Lah
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