This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and that I look forward to chasing the big GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30 prize, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I pile a struggle in money games I want no less than 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his fights even complete over 200 DK points. He’s the perfect style for accruing DraftKings points and if we use Edson as well, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ factors. Give me that all day. This is how I will be starting my cash lineup and then I will work out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same in a 10-man double-up, so I am not shooting first and I would rather play it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola ought to be a terrific play if he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That is exactly what we need on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he can stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he is for sure going to win somebody $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring possible for me to fade the chalk. I will probably be in line with the field on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of this week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I enjoy Waterson here since she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I believe she can get a few and she could have the ability to lock up a entry if that is the case. That’s her ceiling in this fight, but I enjoy her for cash games due to her floor. I really don’t see KK completing Waterson, therefore I believe we get three complete rounds of scoring out of her. In a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in money games that is fine. I will use her in GPPs as well, but I do not think she submits KK. I would guess she puts up around ~80 DK points at a decision win when she’s ready to receive the success.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week at GPPs but Mazo is the only I’m interested at least. I believe the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary is by getting a second head kick KO. I really don’t think that’s quite likely at all and I feel that a decision win is most likely for her. I don’t see her heading for any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, so that I do not see the way she scores highly in a decision win. I will have zero lineups with Mazo this week and when I had been making 100 lineups I’d still likely full fade her. Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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