The specialist prediction info from GoldDerby.com is most likely the closest thing we have to tracking”sharp” activity for award shows. While they do not always pinpoint the winner (who does?) , their accuracy has been in the 66-92% range as 2011. The key is that the experts have been dead as far as the films for which they don’t vote, which allows us to narrow down every category to just the contenders with true shots of winning.
The percentage of this pro vote a nominee gets in a specific category can be treated as its”true” odds, which can subsequently be compared to the actual gaming chances for that category to find out which bets offer you the maximum value.
Here is a table comparing a candidate’s true chance of winning based on the exports with the probability implied by the betting odds for various categories, sorted by value.
Make sure you check back regularly up until 8 p.m. lock, as I’ll be upgrading if chances new and shift values emerge.
