When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there has been a really clear evolution in how complicated wagers could be, and how you can almost bet on any type of outcome on Derby day. We have really moved far beyond just choosing a winner along with a second-place finisher and proceeded into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of victory, in addition to stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I often find myself attempting to rationalize and think of quantifiable numbers to support my bet, who knows what will happen after three Mint Julep’s and being down 300 before the real race begins?
Here are just three of my favorite proposal wagers for the Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths would be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than 1 length on 42 events. On the opposite conclusion, the Derby has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.
Within this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a lot of speed horses entered, or horses that tend to favor the front end. With lots of vying for premature positioning, a possible rate duel might appear upfront. If that is the case, then it tends to benefit horses which are sitting just off the speed, and provides a fair shot for some of the deep closers to operate down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most likely case scenario with this wager to money would be for faster fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish in the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a lot of value in choosing the underdog option for the margin of duration victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds with this have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there have been many near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be really be factored in to the odds of this wager, as well as the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby area as wide open as it’s been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite — cash on a simple proposition bet this weekend and bet the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This number seems to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that in the call to the post.
Regardless of who performs or underperforms based on their odds, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records that a DNF or must pull up. This can often occur due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run easily, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate having an even saddlecloth number. At +160, that appears to be a great deal of worth to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”
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