Jasons 2019 NFL picks Album through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you the Minnesota Vikings were the fourth-best team in the NFL? Hey, dont look at usFootball Outsiders possess Minnesota ranked No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 shield, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. He is No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers dont lie.
Speaking of numbers, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) may have some gambling value as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, these NFC North teams happen to be rewarding thus far. We might get more value in thebelow now that the sum has moved out of 44 to as high as 46 about the NFL odds board.
Before we break down our options, let us be sure we are on the Perfect track by Taking a Look at the projections:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –2
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we suspected. If you go for the crew of Nate Silver, there is profit margin to work with for the spread, which can be standard to get an NFL regular-season game. Jeff Sagarins numbers are somewhat more bullish on Minnesota; were quoting his eigenvector distribute, but his recent disperse for the Vikes is 2.94, which gets us near the 2-point margin we are looking for. Note that we are very near the number 3 also.
Of course, if were serious about investing, when theyre in our favor we will need to jump on these opening lines. The Vikings started at press time — but only at $58 a pop , in accordance with the consensus reports that were expanded before the sharps gobbled them up. Small perimeter bet.
That line move on the complete is somewhat intriguing. Team scoring is down in 23.3 points per game last year to 22.4, along with thebelow is 49-43 (53.3 percent) across the league, so auto-betting that theover to your NFL selections doesnt hold water right today — unless you are convinced there will be some regression to the expression, possibly from the kicking game.
The matchup on the floor things toward a lower scoring match. The Lions rank No. 14 overall in DVOA, but only No. 21 on offense compared to No. 12 on protection (and moment on specific teams). Then youve got all that running around the Vikings do; theyre fourth in attempts this season.
Were looking at a little window between the projections and the real odds in regards to this total. Let us follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our selections for a little quantity, and as always, will the prolate spheroid function together with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes